Essence Of Flowers

Straight to the matter at хэнд,folks-kicking off the major season. (Despite my grumbling about the geographical incongruity of moving the Players to May, at least this way we'll have one major a month from now until August.)

The Masters is won by the top players in any given decade. Byron Nelson and Gene Sarazen won in the 1930s. Nelson, Jimmy Demaret and Sam Snead won in the 40s. Ben Hogan, Arnold Palmer, Snead and Demaret won in the 50s. Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player and Palmer won in the 60s. Tom Watson, Raymond Floyd, Fuzzy Zoeller, Nicklaus and Player won in the 70s. Seve Ballesteros, Ben Crenshaw, Nick Faldo, Bernhard Langer, Nicklaus and Watson all won in the 80s. Tiger Woods, Fred Couples, Jose Maria Olazabal, Faldo and Langer all won in the 90s. This decade Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson and Tiger have won.

The 60s were dominated by Palmer and Nicklaus, who each won three times. The oughts are going the same way, Woods with three and Mickelson with two. (Singh won in 2000, Mike Weir in 2003.)

The point is that when you look at the winners over the history of the tournament, you see mostly top players. Leaderboards at The Masters are usually an All-Star team. This is not a major to take a chance with a 150-1 shot. (It's fun to look at the long,long, long shots, though: Would you take Ballesteros at 750-1 or Nicklaus at 1000-1? Player at 5000-1,anyone?)

That said, there are some compelling possibilities under 100-1. Like Olazabal at 66-1. Bottom line: the guy can still play. Like Charles Howell III at 50-1. He'll go early in office pools. He's the not-so-under-the-radar pick. Local boy, staying with mom and dad this week, having an excellent year, already a win, etc.

The mid-range odds are even more enticing. Henrik Stenson, Jim Furyk and Padraig Harrington at 33-1 seem like good cost-benefit picks. Furyk, in particular. He had to make a long putt on 18 last year just to make the cut, and he still finished T22. He's got three top-10s at Augusta to boot. Probably the best deal is Adam Scott at 33-1. He won last week, he's won the Tour Championship and the Players, so he's no stranger to big tournaments with strong fields. And, as Johnny Miller pointed out last weekend, his swing once again looks identical to Tiger's. He was shaky with short putts on Thursday and Friday, though. You can't miss many close opportunities if you're going to contend at Augusta.

The picks are below. As I've said many times, this is my favorite sporting event of the year for many reasons, near the top of the list being the relative lack of commercials. Oh, and the pretty flowers are high on the list. And the course. The slick greens. And the sound of birds chirping in the Georgia spring. And Amen Corner. The accuracy required of No. 13. And ...

At The Masters, take Tiger Woods (11-8), 1/6 unit: When Tiger says he likes the way he's playing, which is what he said after winning the CA Championship two weeks ago, look out.

Take Vijay Singh (16-1), 1/6 unit: When Vijay says he's close then wins, which is what happened three weeks ago at Arnie's tournament, look out.

Take Retief Goosen (25-1), 1/6 unit: Last five trips to Augusta: T3, T3, T13, T13, 2.

Brian Gabrielle is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at mywork.name/loans/go/go.php?sid=1.procappers/Brian_Gabrielle.htm]